Elections & Politics
Polls against prices through the 2026 midterms — margins, turnout, and who calls it first. The oldest prediction-market question, and this semester it's live.
Resolves from Certified results, AP calls
Live
On the board now
The most-traded elections events on Polymarket at page load. Research material, not a recommendation.
Polymarket · Elections · most traded, 24hLive
Prices from Polymarket's public API at page load.
No elections events among the most-traded markets right now.
Open questions
Questions we work on
Each becomes a semester project for a small team, with a written result at the end.
Q1Do market prices beat the polling average 30 days out from a House race?
Q2How fast do prices move on a poll release versus on a news event?
Q3Where do resolution disputes in political contracts come from?
Join the elections track
Rolling admissions for Fall 2026. All majors, no experience required.